globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1960-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906488846
论文题名:
Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations
作者: You Q.; Fraedrich K.; Sielmann F.; Min J.; Kang S.; Ji Z.; Zhu X.; Ren G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期:2017-05-06
起始页码: 1449
结束页码: 1462
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China ; Degree days ; MPI-ESM-LR ; NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim
英文摘要: Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979-2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006-2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
资助项目: NSFC, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China ; MOST, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54323
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, KlimaCampus, 20144 Hamburg, Germany; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou, 730000, China; Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, 100085, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, 100081, China

Recommended Citation:
You Q.,Fraedrich K.,Sielmann F.,et al. Present and projected degree days in China from observation, reanalysis and simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-05-06)
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