| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-014-2190-9
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84939872463
|
| 论文题名: | Assessing the forecast skill of Arctic sea ice extent in the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system |
| 作者: | Peterson K.A.; Arribas A.; Hewitt H.T.; Keen A.B.; Lea D.J.; McLaren A.J.
|
| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
|
| ISSN: | 9307575
|
| 出版年: | 2014
|
| 卷: | 44, 期:2017-01-02 | | 起始页码: | 147
|
| 结束页码: | 162
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Arctic sea ice
; Data assimilation
; Ice concentration
; Ocean and sea ice analysis
; Seasonal forecasting
|
| 英文摘要: | An assessment of the ability of the Met Office seasonal prediction system, GloSea4, to accurately forecast Arctic sea ice concentration and extent over seasonal time scales is presented. GloSea4 was upgraded in November 2010 to include the initialization of the observed sea ice concentration from satellite measurements. GloSea4 is one of only a few operational seasonal prediction systems to include both the initialization of observed sea ice followed by its prognostic determination in a coupled dynamical model of sea ice. For the forecast of the September monthly mean ice extent the best skill in GloSea4, as judged from the historical forecast period of 1996–2009, is when the system is initialized in late March and early April near to the sea ice maxima with correlation skills in the range of 0.6. In contrast, correlation skills using May initialization dates are much lower due to thinning of the sea ice at the start of the melt season which allows ice to melt too rapidly. This is likely to be due both to a systematic bias in the ice-ocean forced model as well as biases in the ice analysis system. Detailing the forecast correlation skill throughout the whole year shows that for our system, the correlation skill for ice extent at five to six months lead time is highest leading up to the September minimum (from March/April start dates) and leading up to the March maximum (from October/November start dates). Conversely, little skill is found for the shoulder seasons of November and May at any lead time. © 2014, Her Majesty the Queen in Right of United Kingdom. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54370
|
| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Peterson K.A.,Arribas A.,Hewitt H.T.,et al. Assessing the forecast skill of Arctic sea ice extent in the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,44(2017-01-02)
|
|
|