DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2235-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939891376
论文题名: Seasonal and extreme precipitation characteristics for the watersheds of the Canadian Prairie Provinces as simulated by the NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble
作者: Khaliq M.N. ; Sushama L. ; Monette A. ; Wheater H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 44, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 255
结束页码: 277
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Canadian Prairie Provinces
; Climate change
; Precipitation extremes
; Regional climate models
; Regional frequency analysis
; Seasonal precipitation
英文摘要: This study evaluates projected changes to characteristics of winter, spring, summer and fall seasonal precipitation and rain and snow dominated daily precipitation extremes for 47 watersheds, located mainly in the Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba provinces of Canada, using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. The set of simulations considered includes those performed with the six participating RCMs for the 1980–2004 period driven by National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II and those driven by four Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the 1971–2000 and 2041–2070 periods. For precipitation extremes, regional frequency analysis is used to develop projected changes to selected 10-, 30- and 50-year return levels of rain and snow dominated extremes (i.e. RDEs and SDEs) separately. The uncertainties due to internal dynamics and physics of the RCMs and those due to the lateral boundary data from driving AOGCMs are studied at the watershed level and evaluated in terms of coefficient of variation on the basis of a multi-RCM ensemble. In general, the structural uncertainty appears to be larger than that associated with the choice of the driving AOGCM for most of the precipitation characteristics considered. Analyses of multi-RCM ensemble-averaged projected changes to mean seasonal precipitation and various return levels of RDEs and SDEs show an increase over nearly all the study domain. The changes to seasonal precipitation are not generally found statistically significant at 5 % significance level but those for RDEs and SDEs are found significant more often for return levels of smaller return period (10-year) compared to those of larger return period (50-year). It is expected that changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation characteristics will have important implications for managing regional water security-related issues in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54395
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering, National Research Council, 1200 Montreal Road, Building M-32, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Global Institute for Water Security, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; Centre Étude et Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle Régionale, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Khaliq M.N.,Sushama L.,Monette A.,et al. Seasonal and extreme precipitation characteristics for the watersheds of the Canadian Prairie Provinces as simulated by the NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,44(2017-01-02)