DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2070-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893188054
论文题名: Regional and seasonal intercomparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles for temperature and precipitation
作者: Kumar D. ; Kodra E. ; Ganguly A.R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2491
结束页码: 2518
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate projections
; CMIP3 models
; CMIP5 models
; Model evaluation
英文摘要: Regional and seasonal temperature and precipitation over land are compared across two generations of global climate model ensembles, specifically, CMIP5 and CMIP3, through historical twentieth century skills and multi-model agreement, and twenty first century projections. A suite of diagnostic and performance metrics, ranging from spatial bias or model-consensus maps and aggregate time series plots, to measures of equivalence between probability density functions and Taylor diagrams, are used for the intercomparisons. Pairwise and multi-model ensemble comparisons were performed for 11 models, which were selected based on data availability and resolutions. Results suggest little change in the central tendency or variability or uncertainty of historical skills or consensus across the two generations of models. However, there are regions and seasons, at different levels of aggregation, where significant changes, performance improvements, and even degradation in skills, are suggested. The insights may provide directions for further improvements in next generations of climate models, and in the meantime, help inform adaptation and policy. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NEU, Northeastern University
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54396
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 400 SN, 360 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kumar D.,Kodra E.,Ganguly A.R.. Regional and seasonal intercomparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles for temperature and precipitation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-09-10)