DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1946-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906724445
论文题名: Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability?
作者: Dayan H. ; Vialard J. ; Izumo T. ; Lengaigne M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1311
结束页码: 1325
语种: 英语
英文关键词: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
; Predictability
; Teleconnections
英文摘要: In this paper we seek to identify inter-annual sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) patterns outside the tropical Pacific that may influence El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through atmospheric teleconnections. We assume that a linear ENSO hindcast based on tropical Pacific warm water volume and Niño3.4 SSTA indices captures tropical Pacific intrinsic predictability inherent to recharge oscillator dynamics. This simple hindcast model displays statistically significant skill at the 95 % confidence level at leads of up to seven seasons ahead of the ENSO peak. Our results reveal that ENSO-independent equatorial wind stress anomalies only significantly improve the skill of that linear hindcast at the 95 % level in boreal spring and summer before the ENSO peak and in boreal fall, five seasons ahead of the ENSO peak. At those seasons, the robust large-scale SST patterns that provide a statistically significant enhancement of ENSO predictability are related to the Atlantic meridional mode and south Pacific subtropical dipole mode in spring, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the south Atlantic subtropical dipole mode in fall. While the first two regions display significant simultaneous correlations with western equatorial Pacific wind stress in three reanalyses (ERA-I, NCEP and NCEP2), the Indian Ocean Dipole and south Atlantic subtropical dipole mode correlation with Pacific winds is less robust amongst re-analyses. We discuss our results in view of other studies that suggest a remote influence of various regions on ENSO. Although modest, the sensitivity of our results to the dataset and to details of the analysis method illustrates that finding regions that influence ENSO from the statistical analysis of observations is a difficult task. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54443
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Laboratoire d'Océanographie Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/CNRS/UPMC/MNHN, Université P. et M. Curie, Case 100, 4, Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France
Recommended Citation:
Dayan H.,Vialard J.,Izumo T.,et al. Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-05-06)