DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1822-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906060348
论文题名: Dynamics of the coupled human-climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering
作者: MacMartin D.G. ; Kravitz B. ; Keith D.W. ; Jarvis A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 243
结束页码: 258
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Control
; Dynamics
; Feedback
; Geoengineering
; Solar radiation management
英文摘要: If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response. Feedback might also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. However, in addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a box-diffusion dynamic model of the climate system to understand how changing the properties of the feedback control affect the emergent dynamics of this coupled human-climate system, and evaluate these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain). This is a challenge for policy as a delayed response is needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification of natural variability, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to changes in the observed state of the climate system. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54505
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Control and Dynamical Systems, California Institute of Technology, Caltech, 1200 E. California Blvd, M/C 107-81, Pasadena, CA, 91125, United States; Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
MacMartin D.G.,Kravitz B.,Keith D.W.,et al. Dynamics of the coupled human-climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-01-02)