globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925500940
论文题名:
Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions
作者: Huang B.; Zhu J.; Marx L.; Wu X.; Kumar A.; Hu Z.-Z.; Balmaseda M.A.; Zhang S.; Lu J.; Schneider E.K.; Kinter III J.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 44, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 559
结束页码: 583
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice ; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ; Climate drift ; Decadal prediction ; North Atlantic salinity
英文摘要: There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean–atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model’s fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54512
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Mail Stop 6C5, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States; Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Huang B.,Zhu J.,Marx L.,et al. Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,44(2017-01-02)
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