DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1933-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906056614
论文题名: Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: Past, present, and future
作者: Chylek P. ; Dubey M.K. ; Lesins G. ; Li J. ; Hengartner N.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 119
结束页码: 129
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 °C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 °C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181-1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975-2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades. © 2013 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54531
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Space and Remote Sensing, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, VIC, BC, Canada; Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chylek P.,Dubey M.K.,Lesins G.,et al. Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: Past, present, and future[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-01-02)