DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2115-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899932131
论文题名: Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation
作者: Robson J. ; Sutton R. ; Smith D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2353
结束页码: 2365
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
; Decadal prediction
; North Atlantic
; Subpolar gyre
英文摘要: In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office's decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures-with a lead time of several years-the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable. © 2014 The Author(s). 资助项目: NCAS, Natural Environment Research Council
; NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54564
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Robson J.,Sutton R.,Smith D.. Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-09-10)