DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2002-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906083155
论文题名: Future change of the Indian Ocean basin-wide and dipole modes in the CMIP5
作者: Chu J.-E. ; Ha K.-J. ; Lee J.-Y. ; Wang B. ; Kim B.-H. ; Chung C.E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 535
结束页码: 551
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; ENSO
; Global warming
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW)
; Indian Ocean dipole (IOD)
; SST
英文摘要: The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability has been represented with the two dominant variability modes: the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) and dipole (IOD) modes. Here we investigate future changes of the two modes together with mean state and El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship under the anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project by comparing the historical run from 1950 to 2005 and the RCP 4.5 run from 2050 to 2099. The five best models are selected based on the evaluation of the 20 models' performances in simulating the two modes and Indian Ocean basic state for the latest 56 years. They are capable of capturing the IOBW and IOD modes in their spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, major periodicity, and relationship with ENSO to some extent. The five best models project the significant changes in the Indian Ocean mean state and variability including the two dominant modes in the latter part of twenty-first century under the anthropogenic warming scenario. First, the annual mean climatological SST displays an IOD-like pattern change over the Indian Ocean with enhanced warming in the northwestern Indian Ocean and relatively weaker warming off the Sumatra-Java coast. It is also noted that the monthly SST variance is increased over the eastern and southwestern Indian Ocean. Second, the IOBW variability on a quasi-biennial time scale will be enhanced due to the strengthening of the ENSO-IOBW mode relationship although the total variance of the IOBW mode will be significantly reduced particularly during late summer and fall. The enhanced air-sea coupling over the Indian-western Pacific climate in response to El Nino activity in the future projection makes favorable condition for a positive IOD while it tends to derive relatively cold temperature over the eastern Indian Ocean. This positive IOD-like ENSO response weakens the relationship between the eastern Indian Ocean and El Nino while strengthens the relationship with western Indian Ocean. Third, the IOD mode, intrinsic coupled mode of the Indian Ocean may not be changed appreciably under the anthropogenic global warming. © 2013 The Author(s). 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NASA, U.S. Department of Energy
; NOAA, U.S. Department of Energy
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54569
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Pusan National University, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, Geumjeong-gu, Busan, 609-735, South Korea; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, 96822, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, 96833, United States; Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Kwangju, 500-712, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Chu J.-E.,Ha K.-J.,Lee J.-Y.,et al. Future change of the Indian Ocean basin-wide and dipole modes in the CMIP5[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-01-02)