DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1930-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906098972
论文题名: Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: A model study
作者: Mecking J.V. ; Keenlyside N.S. ; Greatbatch R.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 271
结束页码: 288
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
; NAO
; North Atlantic
; OGCM
; Stochastic
; Sub-polar gyre
英文摘要: Observations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54572
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany; Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Mecking J.V.,Keenlyside N.S.,Greatbatch R.J.. Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: A model study[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-01-02)