DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1923-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902000066
论文题名: Dynamical seasonal prediction of Southern African summer precipitation
作者: Yuan C. ; Tozuka T. ; Landman W.A. ; Yamagata T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3357
结束页码: 3374
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Coupled general circulation model
; ENSO
; Relative operating characteristic
; Relative operating level
; Reliability diagram
; Seasonal prediction
; Southern African summer precipitation
英文摘要: Prediction skill for southern African (16°-33°E, 22°-35°S) summer precipitation in the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier coupled model is assessed for the period of 1982-2008. Using three different observation datasets, deterministic forecasts are evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficients, whereas scores of relative operating characteristic and relative operating level are used to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. We have found that these scores for December-February precipitation forecasts initialized on October 1st are significant at 95 % confidence level. On a local scale, the level of prediction skill in the northwestern and central parts of southern Africa is higher than that in northeastern South Africa. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the major source of predictability, but the relationship with ENSO is too strong in the model. The Benguela Niño, the basin mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, the subtropical dipole modes in the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Oceans and ENSO Modoki may provide additional sources of predictability. Within the wet season from October to the following April, the precipitation anomalies in December-February are the most predictable. This study presents promising results for seasonal prediction of precipitation anomaly in the extratropics, where seasonal prediction has been considered a difficult task. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: JST, Japan Science and Technology Agency
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54601
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan; Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan; Natural Resources and the Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Yuan C.,Tozuka T.,Landman W.A.,et al. Dynamical seasonal prediction of Southern African summer precipitation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-11-12)