DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1726-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84891632492
论文题名: Natural variability of summer rainfall over China in HadCM3
作者: Lei Y. ; Hoskins B. ; Slingo J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 417
结束页码: 432
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal timescales
; HadCM3
; Natural variability
; Summer monsoon rainfall
英文摘要: Summer rainfall over China has shown decadal variability in the past half century, which has resulted in major north-south shifts in rainfall with important implications for flooding and water resource management. This study has demonstrated how multi-century climate model simulations can be used to explore interdecadal natural variability in the climate system in order to address important questions around recent changes in Chinese summer rainfall, and whether or not anthropogenic climate change is playing a role. Using a 1,000-year simulation of HadCM3 with constant pre-industrial external forcing, the dominant modes of total and interdecadal natural variability in Chinese summer rainfall have been analysed. It has been shown that these modes are comparable in magnitude and in temporal and spatial characteristics to those observed in the latter part of the twentieth century. However, despite 1,000 years of model simulation it has not been possible to demonstrate that these modes are related to similar variations in the global circulation and surface temperature forcing occurring during the latter half of the twentieth century. This may be in part due to model biases. Consequently, recent changes in the spatial distribution of Chinese summer rainfall cannot be attributed solely to natural variability, nor has it been possible to eliminate the likelihood that anthropogenic climate change has been the driving factor. It is more likely that both play a role. © 2013 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54656
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Lei Y.,Hoskins B.,Slingo J.. Natural variability of summer rainfall over China in HadCM3[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-01-02)