DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1966-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897572860
论文题名: Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region
作者: Önol B. ; Bozkurt D. ; Turuncoglu U.U. ; Sen O.L. ; Dalfes H.N.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1949
结束页码: 1965
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region
; Regional climate modeling
英文摘要: In this study, human-induced climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region has been analyzed for the twenty-first century by performing regional climate model simulations forced with large-scale fields from three different global circulation models (GCMs). Climate projections have been produced with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1FI and B1 scenarios, which provide greater diversity in climate information for future period. The gradual increases for temperature are widely apparent during the twenty-first century for each scenario simulation, but ECHAM5-driven simulation generally has a weaker signal for all seasons compared to CCSM3 simulations except for the Fertile Crescent. The contrast in future temperature change between the winter and summer seasons is very strong for CCSM3-A2-driven and HadCM3-A2-driven simulations over Carpathians and Balkans, 4-5 °C. In addition, winter runoff over mountainous region of Turkey, which feeds many river systems including the Euphrates and Tigris, increases in second half of the century since the snowmelt process accelerates where the elevation is higher than 1,500 m. Moreover, analysis of daily temperature outputs reveals that the gradual decrease in daily minimum temperature variability for January during the twenty-first century is apparent over Carpathians and Balkans. Analysis of daily precipitation extremes shows that positive trend is clear during the last two decades of the twenty-first century over Carpathians for both CCSM3-driven and ECHAM5-driven simulations. Multiple-GCM driven regional climate simulations contribute to the quantification of the range of climate change over a region by performing detailed comparisons between the simulations. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54660
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469 Istanbul, Turkey; Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program, Istanbul Policy Center, Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey
Recommended Citation:
Önol B.,Bozkurt D.,Turuncoglu U.U.,et al. Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-07-08)