DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1644-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888069071
论文题名: Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3
作者: Joetzjer E. ; Douville H. ; Delire C. ; Ciais P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2921
结束页码: 2936
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Amazonian precipitation
; Climate change
; CMIP
; Model evaluation
; Uncertainties
英文摘要: The present study aims at evaluating and comparing precipitation over the Amazon in two sets of historical and future climate simulations based on phase 3 (CMIP3) and 5 (CMIP5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Thirteen models have been selected in order to discuss (1) potential improvements in the simulation of present-day climate and (2) the potential reduction in the uncertainties of the model response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. While several features of present-day precipitation-including annual cycle, spatial distribution and co variability with tropical sea surface temperature (SST)-have been improved, strong uncertainties remain in the climate projections. A closer comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 highlights a weaker consensus on increased precipitation during the wet season, but a stronger consensus on a drying and lengthening of the dry season. The latter response is related to a northward shift of the boreal summer intertropical convergence zone in CMIP5, in line with a more asymmetric warming between the northern and southern hemispheres. The large uncertainties that persist in the rainfall response arise from contrasted anomalies in both moisture convergence and evapotranspiration. They might be related to the diverse response of tropical SST and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) variability, as well as to spurious behaviours among the models that show the most extreme response. Model improvements of present-day climate do not necessarily translate into more reliable projections and further efforts are needed for constraining the pattern of the SST response and the soil moisture feedback in global climate scenarios. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54708
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: CNRM-GAME, 42 avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France; Laboratory of Climate Sciences and the Environment, L'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Recommended Citation:
Joetzjer E.,Douville H.,Delire C.,et al. Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-11-12)