DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1526-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886719914
论文题名: Past millennial solar forcing magnitude: A statistical hemispheric-scale climate model versus proxy data comparison
作者: Hind A. ; Moberg A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2527
结束页码: 2537
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model evaluation
; Climate proxy data
; Last millennium
; Northern Hemisphere
; Solar forcing
英文摘要: A set of global climate model simulations for the last thousand years developed by the Max Planck Institute is compared with paleoclimate proxy data and instrumental data, focusing on surface temperatures for land areas between 30° and 75°N. The proxy data are obtained from six previously published Northern Hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, here re-calibrated for consistency, which are compared with the simulations utilizing a newly developed statistical framework for ranking several competing simulations by means of their statistical distance against past climate variations. The climate model simulations are driven by either "low" or "high" solar forcing amplitudes (0.1 and 0.25 % smaller total solar irradiance in the Maunder Minimum period compared to the present) in addition to several other known climate forcings of importance. Our results indicate that the high solar forcing amplitude results in a poorer match with the hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions and lends stronger statistical support for the low-amplitude solar forcing. However, results are likely conditional upon the sensitivity of the climate model used and strongly dependent on the choice of temperature reconstruction, hence a greater consensus is needed regarding the reconstruction of past temperatures as this currently provides a great source of uncertainty. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54727
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Hind A.,Moberg A.. Past millennial solar forcing magnitude: A statistical hemispheric-scale climate model versus proxy data comparison[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-09-10)