DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1583-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886718404
论文题名: On the future reduction of snowfall in western and central Europe
作者: de Vries H. ; Haarsma R.J. ; Hazeleger W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2319
结束页码: 2330
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Attribution
; Circulation patterns
; Climate change
; Snowfall
英文摘要: Large parts of western and central Europe face a 20-50 % future reduction in snowfall on Hellmann days (days with daily-mean temperatures below freezing). This strong reduction occurs in addition to the expected 75 % decrease of the number of Hellmann days near the end of the twenty first century. The result is insensitive to the exact freezing-level threshold, but is in sharp contrast with the winter daily precipitation, which increases under most global warming scenarios. Not only climate model simulations show this. Observational records also reveal that probabilities for precipitation on Hellmann days have been larger in the past. The future reduction is a consequence of the freezing-level threshold becoming a more extreme quantile of the temperature distribution in the future. Only certain circulation types permit these quantiles to be reached, and it is shown that these have intrinsically low precipitation probability. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54750
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI, PO BOX 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
de Vries H.,Haarsma R.J.,Hazeleger W.. On the future reduction of snowfall in western and central Europe[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-09-10)