DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1549-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884700330
论文题名: CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: Contemporary climate
作者: Otieno V.O. ; Anyah R.O.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2081
结束页码: 2097
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The present study is a preliminary interrogation of the ability of ten Earth System Models (ESMs) from the fifth phase of coupled model intercomparison project to characterize seasonal and annual mean precipitation cycle over the Greater Horn of Africa region. Each ESM had at least 2 ensemble members. In spite of distributional anomalies of observations, ESM ensemble means were examined on the basis of gridded precipitation data. Majority of the ten ESMs analyzed correctly reproduce the mean seasonal and annual cycle of precipitation for the period 1979-2008 as compared to gridded satellite-derived observations. At the same time our analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on region and season. Specifically, a modest number of models were able to capture correctly the peaks of bimodal (MAM and OND) and JJAS rainfall while a few either dragged the onset to subsequent months or displaced the locations of seasonal rainfall further north. Nearly all models were in agreement with their representation of the zonal orientation of spatial pattern of the leading EOF rainfall modes; more so, enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and a dipole mode of precipitation pattern are captured in the first and second mode respectively. Further, the corresponding EOF time series of the ESMs rainfall modes were all in phase with observations. However, all models output were positively biased against observations, with large medians and varied range of anomalies. Therefore, caution needs to be taken when choosing models for applications over the region, especially when ensemble means have to be considered. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54783
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, United States
Recommended Citation:
Otieno V.O.,Anyah R.O.. CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: Contemporary climate[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-07-08)