DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1717-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884703031
论文题名: Interannual variability and expected regional climate change over North America
作者: de Elía R. ; Biner S. ; Frigon A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1245
结束页码: 1267
语种: 英语
英文摘要: This study aims to analyse the interannual variability simulated by several regional climate models (RCMs), and its potential for disguising the effect of seasonal temperature increases due to greenhouse gases. In order to accomplish this, we used an ensemble of regional climate change projections over North America belonging to the North American Regional Climate Change Program, with an additional pair of 140-year continuous runs from the Canadian RCM. We find that RCM-simulated interannual variability shows important departures from observed one in some cases, and also from the driving models' variability, while the expected climate change signal coincides with estimations presented in previous studies. The continuous runs from the Canadian RCM were used to illustrate the effect of interannual variability in trend estimation for horizons of a decade or more. As expected, it can contribute to the existence of transitory cooling trends over a few decades, embedded within the expected long-term warming trends. A new index related to signal-to-noise ratio was developed to evaluate the expected number of years it takes for the warming trend to emerge from interannual variability. Our results suggest that detection of the climate change signal is expected to occur earlier in summer than in winter almost everywhere, despite the fact that winter temperature generally has a much stronger climate change signal. In particular, we find that the province of Quebec and northwestern Mexico may possibly feel climate change in winter earlier than elsewhere in North America. Finally, we show that the spatial and temporal scales of interest are fundamental for our capacity of discriminating climate change from interannual variability. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54796
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Consortium Ouranos, 550, Sherbrooke Street West, 19th Floor, West Tower, Montreal, QC, H3A 1B9, Canada; Centre pour l'Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Regionale (ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montreal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
de Elía R.,Biner S.,Frigon A.. Interannual variability and expected regional climate change over North America[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-05-06)