DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878107404
论文题名: Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections
作者: Hodson D.L.R. ; Keeley S.P.E. ; West A. ; Ridley J. ; Hawkins E. ; Hewitt H.T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2849
结束页码: 2865
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; Climate change
; Sea ice
英文摘要: Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54890
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hodson D.L.R.,Keeley S.P.E.,West A.,et al. Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-11-12)