DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1337-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874948093
论文题名: Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling
作者: Pierce D.W. ; Das T. ; Cayan D.R. ; Maurer E.P. ; Miller N.L. ; Bao Y. ; Kanamitsu M. ; Yoshimura K. ; Snyder M.A. ; Sloan L.C. ; Franco G. ; Tyree M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 839
结束页码: 856
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Dynamical downscaling
; Regional climate modeling
; Statistical downscaling
英文摘要: Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54923
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, SIO/CASPO, Mail Stop 0224, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0224, United States; Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, United States; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA, United States; CH2M HILL, Inc., San Diego, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pierce D.W.,Das T.,Cayan D.R.,et al. Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-03-04)