DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1605-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874948808
论文题名: Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: Regional and global model predictions
作者: Patricola C.M. ; Cook K.H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 551
结束页码: 568
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central United States
; Climate change
; Downscaling
; Great Plains
; Midwest
; Model intercomparison
; NARCCAP
; Precipitation
; Regional climate model
英文摘要: A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U. S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U. S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2. 4-2. 9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54947
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, United States; Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C1100, Austin, TX, 78712, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A and M University, 3150 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-3150, United States
Recommended Citation:
Patricola C.M.,Cook K.H.. Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: Regional and global model predictions[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-03-04)