DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1467-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84875727208
论文题名: Explaining the hydroclimatic variability and change in the Salmon River basin
作者: Sridhar V. ; Jin X. ; Jaksa W.T.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1921
结束页码: 1937
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Hydrologic impacts
; Parameter estimation
; Salmon River
; VIC modeling
英文摘要: Climate change in the Pacific Northwest and in particular, the Salmon River Basin (SRB), is expected to bring about 3-5 °C rise in temperatures and an 8 % increase in precipitation. In order to assess the impacts due to these changes at the basin scale, this study employed an improved version of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which includes a parallel version of VIC combined with a comprehensive parameter estimation technique, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) to estimate the streamflow and other water balance components. Our calibration (1955-1975) and validation (1976-1999) of the model at the outlet of the basin, White Bird, resulted in an r2 value of 0. 94 which was considered satisfactory. Subsequent center of timing analysis showed that a gradual advancement of snowmelt induced-peak flow advancing by about 10 days in the future. Historically, the flows have shown a general decline in the basin, and in the future while the magnitudes might not be greatly affected, decreasing runoff of about 3 % over the next 90 years could be expected and timing of peak flow would shift by approximately 10 days. Also, a significant reduction of snow water equivalent up to 25 %, increased evapotranspiration up to 14 %, and decreased soil moisture storages of about 2 % is predicted by the model. A steady decline in SWE/P from the majority of climate model projections for the basin was also evident. Thus, the earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture and increased evapotranspiration collectively implied the potential to trigger drought in the basin and could affect the quality of aquatic habitats and their spawning and a detailed investigation on these impacts is warranted. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54974
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, MS 2060, Boise, ID 83725, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sridhar V.,Jin X.,Jaksa W.T.A.. Explaining the hydroclimatic variability and change in the Salmon River basin[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-07-08)