DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1407-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84875720148
论文题名: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs
作者: Murakami H. ; Sugi M. ; Kitoh A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1949
结束页码: 1968
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global warming
; High-resolution model
; North Indian Ocean
; Tropical cyclone
英文摘要: New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most of the ensemble future (2075-2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal. Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season. Several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters are analysed to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity; this analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55076
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East West Road, POST Bldg. 401, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States
Recommended Citation:
Murakami H.,Sugi M.,Kitoh A.. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-07-08)