DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84869504741
论文题名: Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa
作者: Cook K.H. ; Vizy E.K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 12 起始页码: 2937
结束页码: 2955
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Africa
; Climate change
; Climate change impacts
; Growing season
; Growing season days
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Precipitation
; Regional climate model
英文摘要: Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55084
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, Austin, TX, 78712, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cook K.H.,Vizy E.K.. Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(12)