globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84869504447
论文题名:
Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America
作者: Carril A.F.; Menéndez C.G.; Remedio A.R.C.; Robledo F.; Sörensson A.; Tencer B.; Boulanger J.-P.; de Castro M.; Jacob D.; Le Treut H.; Li L.Z.X.; Penalba O.; Pfeifer S.; Rusticucci M.; Salio P.; Samuelsson P.; Sanchez E.; Zaninelli P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期:12
起始页码: 2747
结束页码: 2768
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Multi-RCM ensemble validation ; Regional climate models ; South America ; South Eastern South America
英文摘要: The ability of four regional climate models to reproduce the present-day South American climate is examined with emphasis on La Plata Basin. Models were integrated for the period 1991-2000 with initial and lateral boundary conditions from ERA-40 Reanalysis. The ensemble sea level pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation are evaluated in terms of seasonal means and extreme indices based on a percentile approach. Dispersion among the individual models and uncertainties when comparing the ensemble mean with different climatologies are also discussed. The ensemble mean is warmer than the observations in South Eastern South America (SESA), especially for minimum winter temperatures with errors increasing in magnitude towards the tails of the distributions. The ensemble mean reproduces the broad spatial pattern of precipitation, but overestimates the convective precipitation in the tropics and the orographic precipitation along the Andes and over the Brazilian Highlands, and underestimates the precipitation near the monsoon core region. The models overestimate the number of wet days and underestimate the daily intensity of rainfall for both seasons suggesting a premature triggering of convection. The skill of models to simulate the intensity of convective precipitation in summer in SESA and the variability associated with heavy precipitation events (the upper quartile daily precipitation) is far from satisfactory. Owing to the sparseness of the observing network, ensemble and observations uncertainties in seasonal means are comparable for some regions and seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55135
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作者单位: Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Int. Guiraldes 2160, Pabellón 2, Piso 2, C1428EGA Buenos Aires, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO), FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina; LOCEAN, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Paris, France; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Hamburg, Germany; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Institut-Pierre-Simon-Laplace et Ecole Doctorale, Sciences de l'Environnement en Ile de France, Paris, France; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Carril A.F.,Menéndez C.G.,Remedio A.R.C.,et al. Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(12)
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