| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-011-1217-8
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84861386891
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| 论文题名: | Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change? |
| 作者: | Räisänen J.; Ylhäisi J.S.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 39, 期:2017-07-08 | | 起始页码: | 1981
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| 结束页码: | 1998
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Climate projection
; CMIP3
; Cross-validation
; Probability
; Temperature change
; Weighting
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| 英文摘要: | Recently, Räisänen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55167
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Räisänen J.,Ylhäisi J.S.. Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-07-08)
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