globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1203-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84864385648
论文题名:
Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles
作者: Yokohata T.; Annan J.D.; Collins M.; Jackson C.S.; Tobis M.; Webb M.J.; Hargreaves J.C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期:3
起始页码: 599
结束页码: 616
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model ; Future climate prediction ; Multi-model ensemble ; Perturbed physics ensemble ; Rank histogram ; Reliability
英文摘要: The performance of several state-of-the-art climate model ensembles, including two multi-model ensembles (MMEs) and four structurally different (perturbed parameter) single model ensembles (SMEs), are investigated for the first time using the rank histogram approach. In this method, the reliability of a model ensemble is evaluated from the point of view of whether the observations can be regarded as being sampled from the ensemble. Our analysis reveals that, in the MMEs, the climate variables we investigated are broadly reliable on the global scale, with a tendency towards overdispersion. On the other hand, in the SMEs, the reliability differs depending on the ensemble and variable field considered. In general, the mean state and historical trend of surface air temperature, and mean state of precipitation are reliable in the SMEs. However, variables such as sea level pressure or top-of-atmosphere clear-sky shortwave radiation do not cover a sufficiently wide range in some. It is not possible to assess whether this is a fundamental feature of SMEs generated with particular model, or a consequence of the algorithm used to select and perturb the values of the parameters. As under-dispersion is a potentially more serious issue when using ensembles to make projections, we recommend the application of rank histograms to assess reliability when designing and running perturbed physics SMEs. © 2011 The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55208
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作者单位: Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; Institute of Geophysics, The University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Rd., ROC-196, Mail Code R2200, Austin, TX 78758, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Yokohata T.,Annan J.D.,Collins M.,et al. Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(3)
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