| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84864385931
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| 论文题名: | Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections |
| 作者: | Rahmstorf S.; Perrette M.; Vermeer M.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 39, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 861
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| 结束页码: | 875
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Global warming
; Ocean
; Projections
; Sea level
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| 英文摘要: | We determine the parameters of the semi-empirical link between global temperature and global sea level in a wide variety of ways, using different equations, different data sets for temperature and sea level as well as different statistical techniques. We then compare projections of all these different model versions (over 30) for a moderate global warming scenario for the period 2000-2100. We find the projections are robust and are mostly within ±20% of that obtained with the method of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527-21532, 2009), namely ~1 m for the given warming of 1.8°C. Lower projections are obtained only if the correction for reservoir storage is ignored and/or the sea level data set of Church and White (Surv Geophys, 2011) is used. However, the latter provides an estimate of the base temperature T0 that conflicts with the constraints from three other data sets, in particular with proxy data showing stable sea level over the period 1400-1800. Our new best-estimate model, accounting also for groundwater pumping, is very close to the model of Vermeer and Rahmstorf (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:21527-21532, 2009). © 2011 Springer-Verlag. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55241
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Surveying, Aalto University School of Engineering, Espoo, Finland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Rahmstorf S.,Perrette M.,Vermeer M.. Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(3)
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