DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1219-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862987000
论文题名: Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale
作者: Solman S.A. ; Pessacg N.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 59
结束页码: 76
语种: 英语
英文关键词: MM5 model
; Regional climate modeling
; South America
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: This work focuses on the evaluation of different sources of uncertainty affecting regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale, using the MM5 model. The simulations cover a 3-month period for the austral spring season. Several four-member ensembles were performed in order to quantify the uncertainty due to: the internal variability; the definition of the regional model domain; the choice of physical parameterizations and the selection of physical parameters within a particular cumulus scheme. The uncertainty was measured by means of the spread among individual members of each ensemble during the integration period. Results show that the internal variability, triggered by differences in the initial conditions, represents the lowest level of uncertainty for every variable analyzed. The geographic distribution of the spread among ensemble members depends on the variable: for precipitation and temperature the largest spread is found over tropical South America while for the mean sea level pressure the largest spread is located over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, where large synoptic-scale activity occurs. Using nudging techniques to ingest the boundary conditions reduces dramatically the internal variability. The uncertainty due to the domain choice displays a similar spatial pattern compared with the internal variability, except for the mean sea level pressure field, though its magnitude is larger all over the model domain for every variable. The largest spread among ensemble members is found for the ensemble in which different combinations of physical parameterizations are selected. The perturbed physics ensemble produces a level of uncertainty slightly larger than the internal variability. This study suggests that no matter what the source of uncertainty is, the geographical distribution of the spread among members of the ensembles is invariant, particularly for precipitation and temperature. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55243
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera CIMA/CONICET-UBA, DCAO/FCEN, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, CIMA-Ciudad Universitaria, Pabellón II-Piso 2 (1428), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Centro Nacional Patagónico (CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina
Recommended Citation:
Solman S.A.,Pessacg N.L.. Evaluating uncertainties in regional climate simulations over South America at the seasonal scale[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-01-02)