| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-011-1134-x
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84864387343
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| 论文题名: | Regime dependent changes in global precipitation |
| 作者: | Allan R.P.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 39, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 827
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| 结束页码: | 840
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate models
; Dynamical regime
; Precipitation
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| 英文摘要: | Assessment of changes in precipitation (P) as a function of percentiles of surface temperature (T) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (ω) are presented, considering present-day simulations and observational estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA Interim). There is a tendency for models to overestimate P in the warm, subsiding regimes compared to GPCP, in some cases by more than 100%, while many models underestimate P in the moderate temperature regimes. Considering climate change projections between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, responses in P are characterised by dP/dT ≥ 4%/K over the coldest 10-20% of land points and over warm, ascending ocean points while P declines over the warmest, descending regimes (dP/dT ~ - 4%/K for model ensemble means). The reduced Walker circulation limits this contrasting dP/dT response in the tropical wet and dry regimes only marginally. Around 70% of the global surface area exhibits a consistent sign for dP/dT in at least 6 out of a 7-member model ensemble when considering P composites in terms of dynamic regime. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55261
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Allan R.P.. Regime dependent changes in global precipitation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(3)
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