DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1234-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84860327920
论文题名: Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models
作者: Kusunoki S. ; Arakawa O.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2055
结束页码: 2072
语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Asian summer monsoon
; Global warming projection
; Horizontal transport of moisture
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation intensity
英文摘要: Future change in precipitation intensity of East Asian summer monsoon is investigated using the present-day climate simulations (1991-2000) and the future climate simulations (2091-2100, A1B emission scenario) by the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) models. Target period is the month from June to July which is the main part of the rainy season over Japan and Korea. In the present-day climate simulations, we have quantitatively evaluated model's reproducibility of precipitation climatology and Simple Daily precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), using skill S proposed by Taylor (J Geophys Res 106:7183-7192, 2001). Models with higher reproducibility of precipitation climatology tend to show higher reproducibility of precipitation intensity. In the future climate simulations, simple Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) average using all models show the increase of precipitation intensity over almost all regions of East Asia. Introduction of S as weighting factor does not make large difference in the geographical distribution of precipitation intensity change. In case of MME using five best models, the geographical pattern of precipitation intensity change is qualitatively similar to that using all models, but the local magnitude of changes are much affected by the best model. In order to interpret future change in precipitation climatology and SDII, we have calculated change in vertically integrated horizontal transport of moisture. Changes in precipitation climatology and SDII can be interpreted as the moisture convergence change associated with change in horizontal transport of moisture. Large moisture convergence was found due to either intensification or weakening of subtropical high depending on models. © 2011 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55309
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kusunoki S.,Arakawa O.. Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-09-10)