DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1126-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84855298979
论文题名: Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales
作者: Menkes C.E. ; Lengaigne M. ; Marchesiello P. ; Jourdain N.C. ; Vincent E.M. ; Lefèvre J. ; Chauvin F. ; Royer J.-F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 301
结束页码: 321
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric reanalyses
; Cyclogenesis indices
; Cyclone stochasticity
; ENSO
英文摘要: This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979-2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. Finally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55408
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: IRD, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numeriques, IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France; IRD, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India; IRD, BP A5, Nouméa Cedex 98848, New Caledonia; IRD, Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale (LEGOS), 14 Av Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France; Météo-France, CNRM/GAME (Météo-France/CNRS), 42, Avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France; LOCEAN, IRD/UPMC/MNHN/CNRS, Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement, BP A5 Boîte 100, 98848 Nouméa Cedex, New Caledonia
Recommended Citation:
Menkes C.E.,Lengaigne M.,Marchesiello P.,et al. Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-01-02)