globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0956-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84855267070
论文题名:
Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe
作者: van den Hurk B.; Doblas-Reyes F.; Balsamo G.; Koster R.D.; Seneviratne S.I.; Camargo Jr. H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 349
结束页码: 362
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Europe ; Potential predictability ; Seasonal forecasting ; Soil moisture initialization
英文摘要: The Second Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE2) is designed to explore the improvement of forecast skill of summertime temperature and precipitation up to 8 weeks ahead by using realistic soil moisture initialization. For the European continent, we show in this study that for temperature the skill does indeed increase up to 6 weeks, but areas with (statistically significant) lower skill also exist at longer lead times. The skill improvement is smaller than shown earlier for the US, partly because of a lower potential predictability of the European climate at seasonal time scales. Selection of extreme soil moisture conditions or a subset of models with similar initial soil moisture conditions does improve the forecast skill, and sporadic positive effects are also demonstrated for precipitation. Using realistic initial soil moisture data increases the interannual variability of temperature compared to the control simulations in the South-Central European area at longer lead times. This leads to better temperature forecasts in a remote area in Western Europe. However, the covered range of forecast dates (1986-1995) is too short to isolate a clear physical mechanism for this remote correlation. © 2010 The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55409
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, KNMI, PO Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands; Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain; European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Shinfield Park, RG2 9AX Reading, United Kingdom; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
van den Hurk B.,Doblas-Reyes F.,Balsamo G.,et al. Soil moisture effects on seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast scores in Europe[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-01-02)
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