DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057833
论文题名: The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heat waves
作者: Perkins S.E. ; Fischer E.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8415
EISSN: 1944-8146
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 21 起始页码: 5793
结束页码: 5797
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australia
; climate model
; evaluation
; heat waves
; trends
Scopus关键词: Australia
; Earth system model
; evaluation
; Heat waves
; Individual modeling
; Interannual variability
; Internal climate variability
; trends
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; extreme event
; frequency analysis
; numerical model
; spatial analysis
; wave
; Australia
英文摘要: The evaluation of a climate model's capability to simulate trends in extreme events is not straightforward. This is due to the role of internal climate variability, the simulated phases of which are unique to each individual model realization. We undertake an assessment of the 21-member Community Earth System Model (CESM) on the basis of its ability to simulate heat wave days frequency over Australia. We employ the extreme heat factor definition to measure heat waves and study events for all summers (November-March) between 1950 and 2005. The spatial pattern, magnitude, and significance of trends in CESM were found to be reasonable since the corresponding observed trends were within the CESM ensemble range. There is a suggestion that the model produces higher interannual variability than what is observed. The trends between realizations of the same model differ strongly, which suggest that internal climate variability can strongly amplify or mask local trends in extreme events. Key Points The CESM model has a sound capability in simulating trends in heat wave days A small model ensemble may not be represent models' ability to simulate extremes The forced signal in CESM is toward increasing heat wave days over Australia ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84887553872&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL057833&partnerID=40&md5=67c811da8c81b8a51885176ef6a52e0a
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5679
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Perkins S.E.,Fischer E.M.. The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heat waves[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(21).