DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057403
论文题名: Uncertainties in future ozone and PM10 projections over Europe from a regional climate multiphysics ensemble
作者: Jiménez-Guerrero P. ; Jerez S. ; Montávez J.P. ; Trigo R.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8424
EISSN: 1944-8155
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 21 起始页码: 5764
结束页码: 5769
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air pollution
; climate change scenarios
; ensembles
; Europe
; regional climate
Scopus关键词: Climate change scenarios
; ensembles
; Europe
; Parameterization schemes
; Planetary boundary layers
; Regional air quality
; Regional climate
; Regional climate modeling
; Acoustic fields
; Air pollution
; Air quality
; Clouds
; Ozone
; Uncertainty analysis
; air quality
; atmospheric pollution
; boundary layer
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climatology
; computer simulation
; ensemble forecasting
; ozone
; particulate matter
; regional climate
; troposphere
; uncertainty analysis
; Europe
英文摘要: Due to the computational time required for modeling air quality climatologies, the characterization of processes introducing the largest uncertainty in air quality-climate projections is a sound field of research. Here an air quality ensemble is assessed over Europe for present (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100, SRES A2) periods to characterize the sensitivity of regional air quality projections to the physics of the regional climate model driving the simulations. The ensemble comprises eight members resulting from combining two options of parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer, cumulus, and microphysics. The differences in the ensemble members (spread) for the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM10) are strongly affected by the physics selected and could be considered as a matter of uncertainty in the change signals. Also, the leading processes causing the largest uncertainties in air quality projections have been identified and are mainly related to the election of the cumulus schemes. Key Points Characterization of the mean change and spreads of air quality projections Leading process causing uncertainties in air quality projections is identified The influence of several key processes grows for future projections ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84887291493&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL057403&partnerID=40&md5=e06a35fab9a5d7aa9e79d000301eaaa4
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5688
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Jiménez-Guerrero P.,Jerez S.,Montávez J.P.,et al. Uncertainties in future ozone and PM10 projections over Europe from a regional climate multiphysics ensemble[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(21).