DOI: 10.1002/grl.51010
论文题名: Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence
作者: Zhang X. ; Wan H. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Hegerl G.C. ; Min S.-K.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8489
EISSN: 1944-8220
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 19 起始页码: 5252
结束页码: 5257
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change detection and attribution
; extreme precipitation
Scopus关键词: Clausius-Clapeyron relationship
; Climate change detection
; Coupled climate model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme precipitation
; Global mean surface temperature
; Northern Hemispheres
; Precipitation extremes
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Rain
; Estimation
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; human activity
; Northern Hemisphere
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; surface temperature
英文摘要: This study provides estimates of the human contribution to the observed widespread intensification of precipitation extremes. We consider the annual maxima of daily (RX1day) and 5 day consecutive (RX5day) precipitation amounts over the Northern Hemisphere land area for 1951-2005 and compare observed changes with expected responses to external forcings as simulated by multiple coupled climate models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The effect of anthropogenic forcings can be detected in extreme precipitation observations, both individually and when simultaneously estimating anthropogenic and naturally forced changes. The effect of natural forcings is not detectable. We estimate that human influence has intensified annual maximum 1 day precipitation in sampled Northern Hemisphere locations by 3.3% [1.1% to 5.8%, >90% confidence interval] on average. This corresponds to an average intensification in RX1day of 5.2% [1.3%, 9.3%] per degree increase in observed global mean surface temperature consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Key Points Extreme precipitation intensification attributable to human influence Observed and simulated changes in extreme precipitation consistent Model projected future changes may be reliable ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84885350520&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.51010&partnerID=40&md5=fccad07d092fa31451425d41dbb84448
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5753
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Zhang X.,Wan H.,Zwiers F.W.,et al. Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(19).