DOI: 10.1002/grl.50940
论文题名: Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models
作者: Toreti A. ; Naveau P. ; Zampieri M. ; Schindler A. ; Scoccimarro E. ; Xoplaki E. ; Dijkstra H.A. ; Gualdi S. ; Luterbacher J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8550
EISSN: 1944-8281
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 18 起始页码: 4887
结束页码: 4892
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; extreme events
; precipitation
Scopus关键词: Consistent estimation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme events
; Global climate model simulations
; Global precipitation
; Intermodel variability
; Northern Hemispheres
; Precipitation extremes
; Climate change
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Tropics
; Computer simulation
; convective system
; estimation method
; extreme event
; global change
; global warming
; latitude
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; resolution
英文摘要: Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extremes for the 21st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and future simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the representation of organized convective systems. Low intermodel variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84884302892&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50940&partnerID=40&md5=68370c46b388f53ccae941e946e7ef8c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5814
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstr. 1, DE-35390 Giessen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Toreti A.,Naveau P.,Zampieri M.,et al. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(18).