DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.06.001
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021210390
论文题名: Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios
作者: Sun Q.-H. ; Xia J. ; Miao C.-Y. ; Duan Q.-Y.
刊名: Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN: 16749278
出版年: 2017
卷: 8, 期: 2 起始页码: 80
结束页码: 92
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian inference
; Climate change projection
; Extreme events
; RCPs scenarios
英文摘要: A Bayesian multi-model inference framework was used to assess the changes in the occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events in four major river basins in China (i.e., Liaohe River Basin, Yellow River Basin, Yangtze River Basin, and Pearl River Basin) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios using multiple global climate model projections from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The results projected more summer days and fewer frost days in 2006–2099. The ensemble prediction shows the Pearl River Basin is projected to experience more summer days than other basins with the increasing trend of 16.3, 38.0, and 73.0 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Liaohe River Basin and Yellow River Basin are forecasted to become wetter and warmer with the co-occurrence of increases in summer days and wet days. Very heavy precipitation days (R20, daily precipitation ≥20 mm) are projected to increase in all basins. The R20 in the Yangtze River Basin are projected to have the highest change rate in 2006–2099 of 1.8, 2.5, and 3.8 d per 100 years for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. © 2017 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration) 资助项目: National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58803
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Recommended Citation:
Sun Q.-H.,Xia J.,Miao C.-Y.,et al. Bayesian multi-model projections of extreme hydroclimatic events under RCPs scenarios[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2017-01-01,8(2)