DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.03.001
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016508059
论文题名: Projected changes in mean and extreme climates over Hindu Kush Himalayan region by 21 CMIP5 models
作者: Wu J. ; Xu Y. ; Gao X.-J.
刊名: Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN: 16749278
出版年: 2016
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change projection
; CMIP5
; Extreme climate events
; Hindu Kush Himalayan region
; Mean climate
英文摘要: Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036-2065 and 2066-2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976-2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066-2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036-2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions. © 2017 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58825
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Recommended Citation:
Wu J.,Xu Y.,Gao X.-J.. Projected changes in mean and extreme climates over Hindu Kush Himalayan region by 21 CMIP5 models[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2016-01-01