DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.08.004
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028543839
论文题名: Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
作者: Kifle Arsiso B. ; Mengistu Tsidu G. ; Stoffberg G.H. ; Tadesse T.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2017
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change scenarios
; Unmet demand
; Urbanization
; Water tariff
; WEAP
英文摘要: Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study method consists of trend analysis through collecting on water consumption & hydrological information and climate data of statistically downscaled acquired from Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3%) will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 359.54millionm3 in 2039. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 450.59millionm3 in 2039. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3%) the unmet water demand is 130millionm3 in 2030, 271millionm3 in 2035 and 515.74millionm3 in 2039. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will have big shortage of water in the city. The most effective management optioned are water tariff increasing, domestic water use technology efficiency improvement and water harvesting gives satisfactory result in mitigating un meet demand of climate change and population growth in the city. © 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58999
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, University of South Africa (UNISA), Pretoria, South Africa; Department of Environment and Climate Change, Ethiopian Civil Service University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Department of Physics, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Botswana International University of Technology and Science (BIUST), Botswana; National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska Lincoln, USA
Recommended Citation:
Kifle Arsiso B.,Mengistu Tsidu G.,Stoffberg G.H.,et al. Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia[J]. Climate Risk Management,2017-01-01