globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.07.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85026243986
论文题名:
Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
作者: Symstad A.J.; Fisichelli N.A.; Miller B.W.; Rowland E.; Schuurman G.W.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2017
卷: 17
起始页码: 78
结束页码: 91
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptive management ; Climate change adaptation ; Management decision making ; Quantitative simulation modeling ; Scenario planning ; Wind Cave National Park
英文摘要: Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study's integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address. © 2017
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59004
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, 26611 U.S. Highway 385, Hot Springs, SD, United States; National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science, 1201 Oakridge Dr., Suite 200, Fort Collins, CO, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior North Central Climate Science Center, 1499 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Upper Saco Valley Land Trust, 2686 White Mountain Road, North Conway, NH, United States; Schoodic Institute at Acadia National Park, Forest Ecology Program, PO Box 277, Winter Harbor, ME, United States

Recommended Citation:
Symstad A.J.,Fisichelli N.A.,Miller B.W.,et al. Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making[J]. Climate Risk Management,2017-01-01,17
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