DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.12.021
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85009067191
论文题名: Sea-level rise and potential drowning of the Italian coastal plains: Flooding risk scenarios for 2100
作者: Antonioli F. ; Anzidei M. ; Amorosi A. ; Lo Presti V. ; Mastronuzzi G. ; Deiana G. ; De Falco G. ; Fontana A. ; Fontolan G. ; Lisco S. ; Marsico A. ; Moretti M. ; Orrù P.E. ; Sannino G.M. ; Serpelloni E. ; Vecchio A.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2017
卷: 158 起始页码: 29
结束页码: 43
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 2100 Coastline scenario
; Climate change
; Marine flooding
; Relative sea-level rise
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Floods
; Landforms
; Risk perception
; Sea level
; Tectonics
; 2100 Coastline scenario
; Coastal management
; Digital terrain model
; Global climate changes
; Italian peninsula
; Marine flooding
; Relative sea level rise
; Tectonic settings
; Climate change
; climate change
; coastal zone
; coastal zone management
; decision making
; flooding
; glacioisostasy
; global climate
; Holocene
; infrastructure planning
; land use planning
; lidar
; risk assessment
; sea level change
; uplift
; Adriatic Coast [Italy]
; Italian Peninsula
; Italy
英文摘要: We depict the relative sea-level rise scenarios for the year 2100 from four areas of the Italian peninsula. Our estimates are based on the Rahmstorf (2007) and IPCC-AR5 reports 2013 for the RCP-8.5 scenarios (www.ipcc.ch) of climate change, adjusted for the rates of vertical land movements (isostasy and tectonics). These latter are inferred from the elevation of MIS 5.5 deposits and from late Holocene sea-level indicators, matched against sea-level predictions for the same periods using the glacio-hydro-isostatic model of Lambeck et al. (2011). We focus on a variety of tectonic settings: the subsiding North Adriatic coast (including the Venice lagoon), two tectonically stable Sardinia coastal plains (Oristano and Cagliari), and the slightly uplifting Taranto coastal plain, in Apulia. Maps of flooding scenarios are shown on high-resolution Digital Terrain Models mostly based on Lidar data. The expected relative sea-level rise by 2100 will change dramatically the present-day morphology, potentially flooding up to about 5500 km2 of coastal plains at elevations close to present-day sea level. The subsequent loss of land will impact the environment and local infrastructures, suggesting land planners and decision makers to take into account these scenarios for a cognizant coastal management. Our method developed for the Italian coast can be applied worldwide in other coastal areas expected to be affected by marine ingression due to global climate change. © 2017 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59320
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: ENEA, SSPT, Roma, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy; Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche e Ambientali, University of Bologna, Italy; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, University “Aldo Moro”, CONISMA, Bari, Italy; Dipartimento di Scienze Chimiche e Geologiche, University of Cagliari, CONISMA, Italy; IAMC-CNR, Oristano, Italy; Dipartimento di Geoscienze, University of Padova, Conisma, Italy; Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze, University of Trieste, CONISMA, Italy; Lesia Observatoire de Paris, Section de Meudon 5, France
Recommended Citation:
Antonioli F.,Anzidei M.,Amorosi A.,et al. Sea-level rise and potential drowning of the Italian coastal plains: Flooding risk scenarios for 2100[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2017-01-01,158