globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50806
论文题名:
Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone
作者: Anet J.G.; Rozanov E.V.; Muthers S.; Peter T.; Brönnimann S.; Arfeuille F.; Beer J.; Shapiro A.I.; Raible C.C.; Steinhilber F.; Schmutz W.K.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8671
EISSN: 1944-8402
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:16
起始页码: 4420
结束页码: 4425
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 21st century ; erythemal ; global warming ; grand solar minimum ; total ozone column
Scopus关键词: 21st century ; Chemistry-climate models ; erythemal ; Global ozone distributions ; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes ; Solar minima ; Surface temperatures ; Total ozone column ; Atmospheric temperature ; Global warming ; Ozone ; Ozone layer ; Solar energy ; Solar radiation ; atmosphere-ocean system ; climate modeling ; ensemble forecasting ; global climate ; global warming ; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; irradiance ; ozone ; radiative forcing ; solar activity ; stratosphere ; surface temperature ; twenty first century ; ultraviolet radiation
英文摘要: We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer. Key Points A future grand solar minimum will modify the global ozone distribution A future grand solar minimum will have an impact on the rate of global warming Strength and duration of a future grand solar minimum are highly uncertain. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84882302066&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50806&partnerID=40&md5=33cfd879fae9d65fe8e8a727dd6d7bd1
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5935
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Universitaetstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Anet J.G.,Rozanov E.V.,Muthers S.,et al. Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(16).
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