| DOI: | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.03.024
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84949636346
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| 论文题名: | Predictable components in global speleothem δ18O |
| 作者: | Fischer M.J.
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| 刊名: | Quaternary Science Reviews
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| ISSN: | 2773791
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 131 | | 起始页码: | 380
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| 结束页码: | 392
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Oxygen-isotope
; Predictable components
; Principal components
; Speleothem
; Time series analysis
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| Scopus关键词: | Dynamical systems
; Dynamics
; Earth atmosphere
; Isotopes
; Time series analysis
; Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles
; Higher-frequency signals
; Low frequency oscillations
; Oxygen isotopes
; Predictable components
; Principal Components
; Slow Feature Analysis(SFA)
; Speleothem
; Principal component analysis
; oxygen isotope
; paleoclimate
; prediction
; principal component analysis
; proxy climate record
; Quaternary
; speleothem
; time series analysis
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| 英文摘要: | The earth's ice-ocean-atmosphere system is made up of subsystems which have different dynamics and which evolve at different timescales. Examples include the slow dynamics of ice sheet growth and melting, the tropical response to precessional cycles (~21,000 years), and the fast dynamics of Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (~1500 years). Since dynamical systems evolve along characteristic trajectories, they are, to some extent, predictable. Further, it should be possible to decompose any dynamical system that is made up of subsystems with discrete dynamics and characteristic timescales, into time series which capture those discrete components. This study reviews five methods which can potentially achieve this, including: Optimal Persistence Analysis (OPA), Slow Feature Analysis (SFA), Principal Trend Analysis (PTA), Average Predictability Time Decomposition (APTD) and Forecastable Components Analysis (ForeCA). These methods produce sets of components that are in some way predictable, such that each component is more predictable than the next component, but each method uses a different measure of predictability. The five methods are applied to a global dataset of speleothem δ18O spanning the period 22-0 ka BP. The two leading predictable components are a monotonic trend, and a low-frequency oscillation with a periodicity of ~21,000 years. The methods ForeCA and PTA cleanly separate these two components from higher-frequency signals. The third predictable component consists predominantly of a peak which ramps up during Heinrich Stadial 1, and falls thereafter. Furthermore, predictable components analysis can be used not only to investigate the predictability within a field, but can be extended to exploring the predictability between fields, such as between the northern hemisphere field and the southern hemisphere field. Predictable components analysis allows a better insight into the dynamical components of climate fields, and hence should be a useful tool for improving the interpretation of paleo-isotope records and other climate proxies. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59744
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Lucas Heights, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Fischer M.J.. Predictable components in global speleothem δ18O[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2016-01-01,131
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