| DOI: | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.006
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84935877584
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| 论文题名: | Obliquity and precession as pacemakers of Pleistocene deglaciations |
| 作者: | Feng F.; Bailer-Jones C.A.L.
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| 刊名: | Quaternary Science Reviews
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| ISSN: | 2773791
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 122 | | 起始页码: | 166
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| 结束页码: | 179
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Bayesian inference
; Climate model
; Glacial cycles
; Mid-Pleistocene transition
; Obliquity
; Pleistocene
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| Scopus关键词: | Bayesian networks
; Climate models
; Earth (planet)
; Geomagnetism
; Glacial geology
; Incident solar radiation
; Inference engines
; Orbits
; Solar radiation
; Bayesian inference
; Glacial cycles
; Glacial-interglacial cycles
; Ice-volume variations
; Northern Hemispheres
; Obliquity
; Orbital eccentricity
; Pleistocene
; Climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; deglaciation
; eccentricity
; geomagnetic field
; glacial-interglacial cycle
; insolation
; Milankovitch cycle
; Northern Hemisphere
; obliquity
; Pleistocene
; precession
; uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | The Milankovitch theory states that the orbital eccentricity, precession, and obliquity of the Earth influence our climate by modulating the summer insolation at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Despite considerable success of this theory in explaining climate change over the Pleistocene epoch (2.6-0.01Myr ago), it is inconclusive with regard to which combination of orbital elements paced the 100kyr glacial-interglacial cycles over the late Pleistocene. Here we explore the role of the orbital elements in pacing the Pleistocene deglaciations by modeling ice-volume variations in a Bayesian approach. When comparing models, this approach takes into account the uncertainties in the data as well as the different degrees of model complexity. We find that the Earth's obliquity (axial tilt) plays a dominant role in pacing the glacial cycles over the whole Pleistocene, while precession only becomes important in pacing major deglaciations after the transition of the dominant period from 41kyr to 100kyr (the mid-Pleistocene transition). We also find that geomagnetic field and orbital inclination variations are unlikely to have paced the Pleistocene deglaciations. We estimate that the mid-Pleistocene transition took place over a 220kyr interval centered on a time 715kyr ago, although the data permit a range of 600-1000kyr. This transition, occurring within just two 100kyr cycles, indicates a relatively rapid change in the climate response to insolation. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59892
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Königstuhl 17, Heidelberg, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Feng F.,Bailer-Jones C.A.L.. Obliquity and precession as pacemakers of Pleistocene deglaciations[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2015-01-01,122
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