globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.01.022
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84923033290
论文题名:
Uncertainties in dating constrain model choice for inferring extinction time from fossil records
作者: Saltré F.; Brook B.W.; Rodríguez-Rey M.; Cooper A.; Johnson C.N.; Turney C.S.M.; Bradshaw C.J.A.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2015
卷: 112
起始页码: 128
结束页码: 137
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dating ; Extinction ; Model selection key ; Sensitivity analysis ; Time series
Scopus关键词: Errors ; Light extinction ; Sampling ; Sensitivity analysis ; Time series ; Australian megafauna ; Dating ; Frequentist methods ; Methodological frameworks ; Misclassification error ; Misclassifications ; Model Selection ; Probability of misclassification ; Time series analysis ; dating method ; evolutionary biology ; faunistics ; fossil record ; mass extinction ; sensitivity analysis ; time series ; uncertainty analysis ; Australia ; Genyornis ; Thylacinus
英文摘要: Accurate estimates of the timing of extinctions (. θ) are critical for understanding the causes of major die-off events and for identifying evolutionary or environmental transitions. Yet many studies have demonstrated that sampling biases and underlying statistical assumptions affect the accuracy of model-based estimates of extinction times (. θ), and the added uncertainty contributed by inherent (laboratory) dating errors has largely been neglected. Here we provide a general guide (model-selection key) for choosing from among eight alternative 'frequentist sampling' (i.e., non-Bayesian) methods, differentiated by their treatment of both the probability of record occurrence and uncertainties in record dates, the most appropriate for a given record. We first provide a methodological framework to characterize time series of dated records as a function of the number of records, the size of the interval between successive records, and laboratory dating errors. Using both simulated data and dated Australian megafauna remains, we then assess how the characteristic of a dataset's time series dictates model performance and the probability of misclassification (false extant vs. false extinct). Among the four classic frequentist methods providing highest model performance, Marshall's (1997) and McCarthy's (1998) methods have the highest model precision. However, high model performance did not prevent misclassification errors, such that the Gaussian-resampled inverse-weighted McInerny (GRIWM) approach is the only method providing both high model accuracy and no misclassification issues, because of its unique down-weighting interval procedure and its ability to account for uncertainties in record dates. Applying the guideline to three time series of extinct Australian species, we recommend using Marshall's, McCarthy's and/or GRIWM methods to infer θ of both Thylacinus sp. and Genyornis sp., because each dataset is characterized by many sightings and a low variance of the interval between records, whereas McInerny's method better suits Diprotodon sp. due to an even lower interval variance. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59999
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; AUSn Centre for Ancient DNA, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; School of Zoology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 5, Hobart, TAS, Australia; School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Saltré F.,Brook B.W.,Rodríguez-Rey M.,et al. Uncertainties in dating constrain model choice for inferring extinction time from fossil records[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2015-01-01,112
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