globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.01.001
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922632808
论文题名:
Comparison between chironomid-inferred mean-August temperature from varved Lake Zabińskie (Poland) and instrumental data since 1896 AD
作者: Larocque-Tobler I.; Filipiak J.; Tylmann W.; Bonk A.; Grosjean M.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2015
卷: 111
起始页码: 35
结束页码: 50
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Combined transfer functions ; Mean-August air temperatures ; Paleolimnology ; Quantitative reconstruction ; Subfossil Chironomidae
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Lakes ; Mean square error ; Paleolimnology ; Air temperature ; Average difference ; Chironomidae ; Coefficient of determination ; High temporal resolution ; Root-mean-square error of predictions ; Temperature changes ; Temperature increase ; Transfer functions ; air temperature ; amplitude ; chronology ; data set ; fly ; paleoclimate ; paleolimnology ; prediction ; reconstruction ; resolution ; subfossil ; taxonomy ; temperature effect ; Canada ; Poland ; Chironomidae
英文摘要: Chironomids preserved in varved Lake Zabińskie (54°07'54.5″ N; 21°59'01.1″ E; 120ma.s.l), northeastern Poland, were used to reconstruct mean-August air temperature since 1896AD at annual (1949-2011AD) and at 3-4 year resolutions (1896-1948AD). This is one of very few studies using chironomids at such high temporal resolution, for a total of 130 sediment samples analyzed. To infer temperature a combined (Northeastern Canada and Poland) transfer function was developed. This transfer function had 112 lakes (50 from Poland, 72 from Canada) and 95 taxa. The mean-August-air temperature gradient was 23.5°C. The coefficient of determination (r2jack) was 0.88, the root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) was 1.30°C and the maximum bias was 2.08°C.The average mean August air temperature measured during the 1961-1990AD reference period was 16.3°C and the chironomid-inferred average temperature for the same period was 16.6°C. For the 1981-2010AD reference period, the temperatures were 1°C warmer (i.e. measured=17.3°C; inferred=17.6°C). The differences of only 0.3°C between the measured and the inferred temperatures during the reference periods were a first indication that the merged transfer function could provide accurate estimates of mean August air temperature. Chironomid-inferred mean August air temperatures since 1896AD had strong relationships with instrumental data at near-annual resolution (rPearson=0.74, pcorr<0.01). The relationship increased on decadal scale (rPearson=0.91, pcorr<0.01) when the errors in varve chronology (-5 to 2 years) were considered. Although the RMSEP of the transfer function was higher than most changes recorded, the average difference between the instrumental and the inferred mean August air temperatures was 0.75°C. The results of this study suggest that not only do chironomids reconstruct the right pattern in temperature changes (83% of the inferences recorded the same temperature increase or decrease than the instrumental data) they can also infer changes with the right amplitude (61% of the inferences had differences with the instrumental data below 0.7°C). This study is one more example of the possible accuracy of chironomids to reconstruct climate, at least for the past 100 years and at this site. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60018
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作者单位: Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; The L.A.K.E.S Institute, Bielerstrasse 53B, Lyss, Switzerland; Institute of Geography, University of Gdansk, Bazyńskiego 4, Gdańsk, Poland

Recommended Citation:
Larocque-Tobler I.,Filipiak J.,Tylmann W.,et al. Comparison between chironomid-inferred mean-August temperature from varved Lake Zabińskie (Poland) and instrumental data since 1896 AD[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2015-01-01,111
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