DOI: 10.1002/grl.50737
论文题名: Physical constraints for temperature biases in climate models
作者: Bellprat O. ; Kotlarski S. ; Lüthi D. ; Schär C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8741
EISSN: 1944-8472
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 15 起始页码: 4042
结束页码: 4047
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias correction
; climate models
; soil moisture
; stationarity
; temperature bias
Scopus关键词: Bias correction
; Model temperatures
; Physical constraints
; Regional climate model simulation
; Stationarity
; Summer temperature
; Temperature bias
; Time-dependent temperature
; Climate models
; Soil moisture
; Computer simulation
; biogeochemical cycle
; climate modeling
; estimation method
; regional climate
; simulation
; soil moisture
; summer
; temperature effect
; twenty first century
英文摘要: In general, biases of climate models depend upon the climate state (i.e., are nonstationary). Recent studies have shown that the adoption of a stationary temperature bias can lead to an overestimation of projected summer warming in southern Europe. It has also been proposed to use a bias correction that increases linearly with temperature. While such an assumption is well-justified for near-term projections, one wonders whether and at what temperature this relation levels off if it does. Here we show, using regional climate model simulations of the ENSEMBLES project and from a single-model perturbed physics ensemble, that the linear bias assumption breaks down at high model temperatures, followed by a transition to a constant bias relation. This transition is apparent in strongly biased model simulations and supported using a pseudo-reality approach. We show that soil moisture scarcity explains a large degree of summer temperature biases across both ensembles and that the limits of soil moisture depletion are responsible for the transition. A linear temperature bias correction therefore potentially over-corrects summer warming, and implicitly assumes unphysical relations between soil moisture and temperature, in particular when considering high-emission scenarios. We conclude that a physically consistent and time-dependent temperature bias correction considering the state of the soil would increase the robustness of bias correction and reduce the uncertainty of 21st century summer warming. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84881179096&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50737&partnerID=40&md5=e0736e06cbcdc97d2a05ea1f844bf2eb
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6005
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Bellprat O.,Kotlarski S.,Lüthi D.,et al. Physical constraints for temperature biases in climate models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(15).