globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.06.031
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904444007
论文题名:
Temperature trends during the present and last interglacial periods - a multi-model-data comparison
作者: Bakker P.; Masson-Delmotte V.; Martrat B.; Charbit S.; Renssen H.; Gröger M.; Krebs-Kanzow U.; Lohman G.; Lunt D.J.; Pfeiffer M.; Phipps S.J.; Prange M.; Ritz S.P.; Schulz M.; Stenni B.; Stone E.J.; Varma V.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2014
卷: 99
起始页码: 224
结束页码: 243
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Interglacial ; Model-data comparison ; Modelling ; Palaeoclimatology ; Reconstructions ; Temperature
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Computer simulation ; Data processing ; Glacial geology ; Incident solar radiation ; Mammals ; Models ; Reconstruction (structural) ; Sea ice ; Temperature ; Atmospheric greenhouse ; Interglacial ; Meltwater-induced changes ; Model-data comparisons ; Negative temperatures ; Overturning circulation ; Palaeoclimatology ; Temperature reconstruction ; Atmospheric temperature
英文摘要: Though primarily driven by insolation changes associated with well-known variations in Earth's astronomical parameters, the response of the climate system during interglacials includes a diversity of feedbacks involving the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation and land ice. A thorough multi-model-data comparison is essential to assess the ability of climate models to resolve interglacial temperature trends and to help in understanding the recorded climatic signal and the underlying climate dynamics. We present the first multi-model-data comparison of transient millennial-scale temperature changes through two intervals of the Present Interglacial (PIG; 8-1.2ka) and the Last Interglacial (LIG; 123-116.2ka) periods. We include temperature trends simulated by 9 different climate models, alkenone-based temperature reconstructions from 117 globally distributed locations (about 45% of them within the LIG) and 12 ice-core-based temperature trends from Greenland and Antarctica (50% of them within the LIG). The definitions of these specific interglacial intervals enable a consistent inter-comparison of the two intervals because both are characterised by minor changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and more importantly by insolation trends that show clear similarities.Our analysis shows that in general the reconstructed PIG and LIG Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude cooling compares well with multi-model, mean-temperature trends for the warmest months and that these cooling trends reflect a linear response to the warmest-month insolation decrease over the interglacial intervals. The most notable exception is the strong LIG cooling trend reconstructed from Greenland ice cores that is not simulated by any of the models. A striking model-data mismatch is found for both the PIG and the LIG over large parts of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere where the data depicts negative temperature trends that are not in agreement with near zero trends in the simulations. In this area, the positive local summer insolation trend is counteracted in climate models by an enhancement of the Southern Ocean summer sea-ice cover and/or an increase in Southern Ocean upwelling. If the general picture emerging from reconstructions is realistic, then the model-data mismatch in mid and high Southern Hemisphere latitudes implies that none of the models is able to resolve the correct balance of these feedbacks, or, alternatively, that interglacial Southern Hemisphere temperature trends are driven by mechanisms which are not included in the transient simulations, such as changes in the Antarctic ice sheet or meltwater-induced changes in the overturning circulation. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60196
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作者单位: VU University Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR 8212), Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; Department of Geology, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany; Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment (BRIDGE), School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences and Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Klagenfurter Strasse, 28334 Bremen, Germany; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; University of Trieste, Dept. of Mathematics and Geosciences, Weiss 2, 34128 Trieste, Italy; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden

Recommended Citation:
Bakker P.,Masson-Delmotte V.,Martrat B.,et al. Temperature trends during the present and last interglacial periods - a multi-model-data comparison[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2014-01-01,99
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